Scotland has had more deaths than births since 2015 with population projected to fall

Scotland’s population is projected to start falling earlier than previously suggested, according to the latest population projections from National Records of Scotland.

Projections show what will happen to the population if recent trends continue. The latest figures look at the 25 years from mid-2024 to mid-2049.

Apart from a small decrease projected for this year (mid-2026), the latest figures show the country’s population increasing until the middle of 2033.

From mid-2034, it is then projected to fall so that by mid-2049, 5.47 million people are projected to be living in Scotland – 1.3% lower than in mid-2024. Projections published in January of last year had the population continuing to increase each year and reaching 5.78 million in mid-2047.

Andrew White, head of population and migration statistics at NRS, said: “Our latest projections are lower than the last set of figures. This is mainly driven by migration falling from unusually high levels.

“While we continue to project more people moving to Scotland than leaving, we now anticipate these levels to be too low to completely offset the gap between deaths and births. Scotland has had more deaths than births since 2015.

“At the same time, we see the number of older people continuing to rise but the number of children and young adults fall.”

The population projections show the number of people aged 75 and over rising by over 300,000 by mid-2049. In the same time period, the number of children is projected to fall by almost 166,000, and the number of young adults to drop by more than 157,000.

The proportion of the population that is of working age is projected to decrease slightly, while the proportion of the population that is pension ageis projected to increase by about 3%.

Scotland’s share of the UK population is projected to fall from 8% in mid-2024 to 7.6% in mid-2049. While the projections show Scotland’s population falling by 1.3%, they show the UK population growing by 4.5%.

All countries of the UK are expected to see deaths outnumber births, and more people moving in than leaving over the 25 years to mid-2049. The balance between births, deaths and migration in each country determines whether its population increases, as in England and Wales, or decreases, as in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Population projections are not predictions and don’t take into account possible policy changes or the impact of global events. They look at what would happen if recent trends continued.